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Who Is More Likely To Be President? You Decide!

Who Is More Likely To Be President? You Decide!

With the General Election season coming soon, it’s time to discuss the probability of winning for each candidate, and determine which battlegrounds will be the biggest factor in the race. In an effort to answer this complex question, I developed an interactive tool that calculates these probabilities.

To refrain from applying any punditry or bias to the analysis, the numbers are based on General Election opinion polls only. While I believe that punditry may be warranted in some cases, I will leave that role to the readers. In other words, you get to decide who is more likely to win the White House, and by how much.

While many people will rely on national polls to determine electability, in reality, these polls can be misleading. If Clinton is leading Trump by 2 points, it doesn’t mean that every state will behave uniformly. Trump will still win Texas, even if Clinton is up by 13 points nationally. And if you recall the 2000 presidential race, a candidate can win the popular vote and still lose in the election. This is not to say that national polls are meaningless, but they must be taken with a grain of salt.

My model relies on General Election polls at the state level. In particular, I look at the ten top swing states which essentially determine who the next President of the United States will be. These are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. Some may argue that Trump has a chance to win Michigan, and Clinton can claim Arizona. While anything is possible, I will wait for more polls before including them later to the model. For now, I’ll focus on those ten swing states which represent 130 electoral votes.

As shown by 270 To Win, Democrats have a significant advantage. They have 217 safe electoral votes and need 53 electoral votes to win the election. Republicans, on the other hand, have 191 electoral votes and would need 78 additional votes to win 1.

The model, based on current polls, suggests that the presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a 75.1% chance of winning in November over Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders who is most likely will not be the Democratic nominee, barring an indictment for Clinton’s email server, has a 91.5% chance of defeating the Republican candidate.

This model will be updated as polls go up or down during the presidential race.

Note: Change the Democratic nominee by selecting either the “Clinton” or “Sanders” grey buttons in the top left corner.

Clinton
Sanders
Probability to Win
StateElectoral VotesTrump
Non-Swing States (EV)408217191
Florida29
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%%
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Pennsylvania20
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%%
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Ohio18
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North Carolina15
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Virginia13
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%%
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Wisconsin10
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%%
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Colorado9
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%%
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Nevada 26
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%%
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Iowa6
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%%
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New Hampshire4
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%%
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Probability of Winning538
Calculate
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1 In the rare event that no candidate secures 270 Electoral Votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes. In my model, I assumed that Republicans will maintain control of the House, which means that Trump would become the next President of the United States. ^
2 In the absence of state polls, national polls were used. ^

Additional Notes:
i. Poll numbers are based on Real Clear Politics average polling.
ii. Undecided voters increase the variance as they may vote for either candidate.

Written by Salam Morcos

Salam Morcos

Salam Morcos is a Managing Editor of Progressive Army and a member of its Editorial Board.

Political activist for democracy, social justice, racial justice, women's right and human rights.

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Jonathan L Huie
Guest

Great article. Enhancement with regard to “In the rare event that the number of Electoral Votes is tied, the House of Representatives would elect the next president.”…

1. Election goes to House if no candidate gets 50% of electors. Example: Clinton 45%, Trump 40%, Johnson 10%, Stein 5% would go to House.

2. House can pick anyone as President, not just candidates, so they would most likely choose Paul Ryan.

Salam-Christine Marina-Mickael Morcos
Guest

I agree with your comments. I am assuming that all electoral votes would be split between Democrats and Republicans. The only case the election would go to the house is when there is a tie.

Salam-Christine Marina-Mickael Morcos
Guest

I updated the article. Thank you for your feedback.

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